Saturday, 10 September 2011

Supercomputer predicts revolution

Feeding a supercomputer with news stories could help predict major world events, according to US research.

A study, based on millions of articles, charted deteriorating national sentiment ahead of the recent revolutions in Libya and Egypt.
While the analysis was carried out retrospectively, scientists say the same processes could be used to anticipate upcoming conflict.
The system also picked up early clues about Osama Bin Laden's location.
Kalev Leetaru, from the University of Illinois' Institute for Computing in the Humanities, Arts and Social Science, presented his findings in the journal First Monday.
Mood and location
The study's information was taken from a range of sources including the US government-run Open Source Centre, and the Summary of World Broadcasts (now known as BBC Monitoring), both of which monitor local media output around the world.
News outlets which published online versions were also analysed, as was the New York Times' archive, going back to 1945.
In total, Mr Leetaru gathered more than 100 million articles.
Reports were analysed for two main types of information: mood - whether the article represented good news or bad news, and location - where events were happening and the location of other participants in the story.
NautilusThe Nautilus SGI supercomputer crunched the 100 million articles
Mood detection, or "automated sentiment mining" searched for words such as "terrible", "horrific" or "nice".
Location, or "geocoding" took mentions of specific places, such as "Cairo" and converted them in to coordinates that could be plotted on a map.
Analysis of story elements was used to create an interconnected web of 100 trillion relationships.
Predicting trouble
Data was fed into an SGI Altix supercomputer, known as Nautilus, based at the University of Tennessee.
The machine's 1024 Intel Nehalem cores have a total processing power of 8.2 teraflops (trillion floating point operations per second).
Based on specific queries, Nautilus generated graphs for different countries which experienced the "Arab Spring".
In each case, the aggregated results of thousands of news stories showed a notable dip in sentiment ahead of time - both inside the country, and as reported from outside.
Egypt sentiment graphMedia "sentiment" around Egypt fell dramatically in early 2011, just before the resignation of President Mubarak.
For Egypt, the tone of media coverage in the month before President Hosni Mubarak's resignation had fallen to a low only seen twice before in the preceding 30 years.
Previous dips coincided with the 1991 US aerial bombardment of Iraqi troops in Kuwait and the 2003 US invasion of Iraq.
Mr Leetaru said that his system appeared to generate better intelligence than the US government was working with at the time.

Start Quote

If you look at this tonal curve it would tell you the world is darkening so fast and so strongly against him that it doesn't seem possible he could survive.”
Kalev LeetaruUniversity of Illinois
"The mere fact that the US President stood in support of Mubarak suggests very strongly that that even the highest level analysis suggested that Mubarak was going to stay there," he told BBC News.
"That is likely because you have these area experts who have been studying Egypt for 30 years, and in 30 years nothing has happened to Mubarak.
The Egypt graph, said Mr Leetaru, suggested that something unprecedented was happening this time.
"If you look at this tonal curve it would tell you the world is darkening so fast and so strongly against him that it doesn't seem possible he could survive."
Similar drops were seen ahead of the revolution in Libya and the Balkans conflicts of the 1990s.
Saudi Arabia, which has thus far resisted a popular uprising, had experienced fluctuations, but not to the same extent as some other states where leaders were eventually overthrown.
Mapping Bin Laden
In his report, Mr Leetaru suggests that analysis of global media reports about Osama Bin Laden would have yielded important clues about his location.
Bin Laden mapMedia reports mentioning Osama Bin Laden may have helped narrow down his location
While many believed the al-Qaeda leader to be hiding in Afghanistan, geographic information extracted from media reports consistently identified him with Northern Pakistan.
Only one report mentioned the town of Abbottabad prior to Bin Laden's discovery by US forces in April 2011.
However, the geo-analysis narrowed him down to within 200km, said Mr Leetaru.
Real time analysis
The computer event analysis model appears to give forewarning of major events, based on deteriorating sentiment.
However, in the case of this study, its analysis is applied to things that have already happened.
According to Kalev Leetaru, such a system could easily be adapted to work in real time, giving an element of foresight.
"That's the next stage," said Mr Leetaru, who is already working on developing the technology.
"It looks like a stock ticker in many regards and you know what direction it has been heading the last few minutes and you want to know where it is heading in the next few.
"It is very similar to what economic forecasting algorithms do."
Mr Leetaru said he also hoped to improve the resolution of analysis, especially in relation to geographic location.
"The next iteration is going to city level and beyond and looking at individual groups and how they interact.
"I liken it to weather forecasting. It's never perfect, but we do better than random guessing."

Egyptian protesters break into Israeli embassy building

Protesters set fire to a police vehicle outside the building

Related Stories

Protesters have broken into the building housing Israel's embassy in Egypt's capital, Cairo, entering consular offices, officials said.
Security forces fired tear gas at the protesters who threw stones and petrol bombs at police vehicles. Israel's ambassador has flown out of Egypt.
US President Barack Obama urged Egypt to protect the embassy after Israel asked Washington for help.
Hundreds of protesters remain near the embassy, burning tyres in the street.
Live gun shots have been heard, as riot police try to disperse the demonstrators, says the BBC's Bethany Bell, in Cairo.
The air is still thick with tear gas, our correspondent says.
There have been protests outside the embassy for weeks amid a downturn in Egypt-Israel relations.
The unrest began after Friday prayers, when thousands converged on Cairo's Tahrir Square to demand faster political reforms following the ousting of former President Hosni Mubarak in February.
Later, hundreds marched on the Israeli embassy. They destroyed a wall around the building, before a group of about 30 broke in and threw documents out of windows.

At the scene

At the Israeli embassy there is now an Egyptian flag flying instead of the Israeli flag.
The focus of the protest has shifted away from the embassy to a headquarters of the Egyptian security forces, which is next to the embassy.
There are hundreds of protesters, young people, trying to attack the headquarters.
They are chanting slogans against the security forces and the head of the military interim ruling council, Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi.
Dozens of rounds of tear gas have been fired. A medical official told me four people had been critically injured.
I can hear gunshots from the security forces trying to prevent the headquarters from being attacked.
There is a large fire in front of the gates of the security headquarters.
Reuters news agency quoted an Israeli official in Jerusalem as saying that the documents appeared to be "pamphlets and forms kept at the foyer". Egypt's state media said some of the documents were marked confidential.
An Israeli official told the BBC the intruders had entered consular offices, but not the main embassy.
After initially standing by, police moved against the protesters, firing tear gas. Several vehicles were set alight.
Live TV pictures in the early hours of Saturday showed protesters throwing petrol bombs at police vans which drove at a crowd of people to try to scatter them.
Shots were heard in the area but it is not clear who fired them. There are reports a police station near the embassy was raided by protesters.
Egyptian state media said about 400 people had been injured in the unrest.
The BBC's Hamada Abu-Qamar in Cairo says the protesters want the embassy to be shut down.
A statement from the office of Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said he had spoken with his US counterpart Leon Panetta and had "asked them to protect the embassy from the demonstrators".
President Obama appealed to Egypt to honour its international obligations and protect the mission, the White House said in a statement.
Israeli ambassador Yitzhak Levanon, his family and other embassy officials have been flown out of the country on board a military plane, Egyptian state TV reported.
However, Reuters says the Israeli consul is staying in Cairo to maintain the mission.
Egyptian Prime Minister Essam Sharaf had summoned his cabinet crisis team while the interior ministry put police forces on alert.
Peace treaty tested
Egyptian protesters in the Israeli embassy buildingAn Israeli official said documents thrown by protesters appeared to be pamphlets from the foyer
There have been protests outside the embassy since the deaths on 18 August of five Egyptian policemen.
Egyptian officials say they were killed as Israeli forces chased suspected militants across the border.
Gunmen had earlier that day attacked Israeli civilian buses near the Red Sea resort of Eilat, killing eight people.
Hundreds of Egyptians protested outside the Israeli embassy in Cairo the following night, burning the Israeli flag and demanding the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador.
Cairo called the policemen's death "unacceptable". Israel did not admit responsibility, but said the deaths were regretted. Israel's defence minister said he had ordered a joint inquiry to be held with the Egyptian army.
Correspondents say the incident marked a sharp escalation in tensions between Israel and Egypt. Their 30-year-old peace treaty was already being tested after long-time Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak was forced from office.
Under Mr Mubarak, ties between the two nations had been stable after a history of conflict.
But his removal has sparked fears among Israeli officials that a less amenable government could take charge in Cairo.

Al Qaeda Is a Complete Fabrication – a Made in the USA production.

In the BBC’s documentary called “The Power of Nightmares“ top CIA officials openly admit that Al Qaeda is a total and complete fabrication, never having existed at any time. al Qaeda is code for illegal CIA false flag attacks against the United States and other countries.  
The highly revealing BBC documentary digs deep into the roots of the war on terror, only to find that much of the widespread fear in the post-9/11 world has been fabricated by those in power for their own interests. Fear has been used widely in the media to manipulate the public into giving up civil liberties and turning over power to elite groups with their own hidden agendas. 
The Power of Nightmares clearly demonstrates that the nightmare vision of a powerful, united terrorist organization waiting to strike our societies is largely an illusion. Wherever the BBC team looked for Al Qaeda, from the mountains of Afghanistan to the sleeper cells in America, they found that we are chasing a phantom enemy. 
The documentary exposes the Bush administration’s need for a reason that complied with the Laws so they could go after “the bad guy of their choice” namely laws that had been set in place to protect us from mobs and “criminal organizations” such as the Mafia. They paid Jamal al Fadl, hundreds of thousands of dollars to back the U.S. Government’s story of Al Qaeda, a “group” or criminal organization they could “legally” go after.
“Al Qaeda is not an organization. Al Qaeda is a way of working … but this has the hallmark of that approach.” People the US claim to be Al Qaeda are not Al Qaeda they are actually POWs and Resistance Fighters, taken from the countries the US illegally attacked. They are POWs and Resistance Fighters who have been illegally deported, tortured and murdered by the US and NATO forces . 
The people who are fighting to free their country and countrymen from the illegal US and NATO invasion and occupations are called Al Qaeda by the US government because the US government needed an enemy. If the US people knew the truth that Al Qaeda doesn’t exist the US would not be in Iraq or Afghanistan. 
Al Qaeda is the US government propaganda, used to falsely and illegally justify the US and NATO invasion and occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan. Both attacks, wars and occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan are deemed by US, Canadian and International Law as crimes against peace, crimes against humanity, wars of aggression and war crimes. The Iraqi, Afghan and Taliban people the US call terrorists are guilty of no crime. 
The Iraqi, Afghan and Taliban people are doing exactly as any country would do if attacked and occupied by a foreign state’s military, they are resisting. They are freedom fighters. Their actions of killing US and NATO soldiers are legal as their battles against the US and NATO forces are one of self-defense whereas the actions of the US and NATO are clearly attacks of aggression – war crimes. 
The US, Canadian and NATO countries are the terrorists. The US, Canadian and NATO countries are the enemy as they attacked Iraq and Afghanistan. Iraq and Afghanistan did not attack the US, Canada or any other NATO country. The people of Iraq and Afghanistan are the innocent victims of US, Canadian and NATO wars of aggression, crimes against peace, crimes against humanity and war crimes – kidnapping, deporting, torture and murder.
On June 16, 2004 staff members of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States testified that Osama bin Laden met with a top Iraqi official in 1994 but found “no credible evidence” of a link between Iraq and Al Qaeda in attacks against the United States. No link has ever been found between Al Qaeda and Iraq or Al Qaeda and Afghanistan because Al Qaeda does not exist. 
Al Qaeda Is a Complete Fabrication. The CIA is trying to tell us something that they publicly can’t with their “official” terrorist buster logo. They are stating that terrorists are like ghosts. Everyone is afraid of them, but nobody has proof they even exist.
Another eye-opening video available online for free viewing is Unconstitutional. In this documentary, interviews with ranking members of Congress, top legal experts, and even a former CIA chief describe many insidious efforts to take away freedoms guaranteed under the US Constitution for over 200 years.
Compelling video footage shows US citizens, from law-abiding store clerks to a US Olympian, who have been the victims of unconstitutional policies established under the Patriot Act. Members of Congress describe the replacement of the previously agreed upon Patriot Act by another version quietly slipped into its place just hours before the final vote in Congress, leaving no one time to read the many devastating changes inserted at the last minute.
Unconstitutional: The War on Our Civil Liberties, is the third in a series of Public Interest Pictures films that follows Unprecedented: The 2000 Presidential Election and Uncovered: The War on Iraq. True to their legacy, Unconstitutional provides the facts and stories that illuminate administration lies, wrongheaded policies, and the real victims of these actions–the American people.
Here, you’ll get the real story behind the USA PATRIOT Act and other administration policies that tries, illegally, to strip the US people of their Constitutional Rights and Freedoms. Their goal is to one day permanently suspend the United States Constitution after launching another attack against their own country, the US, and falsely blame the totally fictitious terrorist organization they call Al Qaeda. They will launch another 9/11 style attack against the US but this time they will declare Martial Law.

The martial law in the U.S. is closely tied with the right of habeas corpus, which is in essence the right to a hearing on lawful imprisonment, or more broadly, the supervision of law enforcement by the judiciary. 
The ability to suspend habeas corpus is often equated with martial law. Article 1, Section 9 of the U.S. Constitution states, “The Privilege of the Writ of Habeas Corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it.”
In United States law, martial law is limited by several court decisions that were handed down between the American Civil War and World War II. In 1878, Congress passed the Posse Comitatus Act, which forbids military involvement in domestic law enforcement without congressional approval
On October 1, 2002 United States Northern Command was established (in direct violation of the Posse Comitatus Act) to provide command and control of Department of Defense homeland defense efforts and to coordinate defense support of civil authorities.[11].
On June 15, 1995, Norman Olson, along with militia leaders from other states, testified before the United States Senate Subcommittee on Terrorism. Olson’s opening statement included the following:
One other important point needs to be made. Since The Constitution is the limiting document upon the government, the government cannot become greater than the granting power
That is, the servant cannot become greater than its master. Therefore, should the chief executive or the other branch of government or all branches together act to suspend The Constitution under a rule of martial law, all power granted to government would be cancelled and differed back to the granting power. That is the people. And I’ll conclude with this statement: Martial law shall NOT be possible in this country as long as the people recognize the bill of rights as inalienable.
Al Jazeera used by the US government as it’s propaganda media outlet for its “War of Terror”
Al Jazeera is the largest and most controversial Arabic News Channel in the Middle East, offering news coverage 24 hours a day from around the world and focusing on the hottest regions of conflict. Founded in 1996, and based in Qatar, the Al Jazeera news network is the fastest growing network among Arab communities and Arabic speaking people around the world. 
It has been the main propaganda news media for the US immediately following the September 11, 2001 attacks, when the US government paid Al Jazeera to broadcast videos in which Osama bin Laden and Sulaiman Abu Ghaith defending and justifying the attacks. That broadcast has since been proven by both US government and International government officials as fakes. The fake video tapes that were sent to Al Jazeera through the CIA was created in the US at Allied Media Corp.
Every time Al Jazeera reported on a new video or audio from Al Qaeda or bin Laden which makes threats against the US the audio or video was actually made in the studios of Allied Media Corp – screenshot above. The financial trail connects the Bush administration to Allied Media Corp. Government documents reveal the work that Allied Media Corp was paid to do for the Bush administration to terrorize the American people. 
The Bush administration was able to strip the American people of their inalienable rights and freedoms because of the video and audio tapes that were made by Allied Media Corp and aired by Al Jazeera. The US government paid Allied Media Corp to produce video tapes and audio tapes that made terrorist threats against the American people. This is essentially the US making threats against itself.
Allied Media Corp erased it’s connection with Al Jazeera when George W Bush left office.  They lost their contract to supply the U.S. government with high quality audio and video tapes of al Qaeda and bin Laden making threats against the U.S.  
Its contract was recently renewed by the Obama administration and its website has an entire section dedicated to Al Jazeera.  Allied Media Corp will be responsible for  Al Jazeera programming.  Al Jazeera will again be a made the U.S. Middle East propaganda tool.
When George W Bush left office Allied Media Corp tries to erase all links between them and Al Jazeera.  They feared Obama would try the Bush administration for war crimes.  To further distance itself from its former main financial backer, the U.S. government, Allied Media Corp marketed itself under the name AMC.  
They tried to erase its involvement in U.S. government propaganda and terrorism via Bush administration ordered fake Al Qaeda tapes. 
 Allied Media Corp not only erased all Al Jazeera connections it contacted independent news agencies including (PRESS Core’s former name) to get the independent news agencies to erase any and all reports that connected Allied Media Corp and Al Jazeera. This was our response. The truth cannot be concealed. The truth cannot be altered. History cannot be changed.
The following link is proof of a link between Allied Media Corp and fake al Qaeda audio and videos. Allied Media Corp makes Al Jazeera terrorists threat videos.  
They didn’t have a contract with Obama government but now that the U.S. government is trying to sell the public on an imminent al Qaeda threat against the U.S. they have been given another contract to restart the propaganda against Muslims.
Every video, every audio tape of bin Laden or the phantom Al Qaeda making threats against the US has been made in the USA. The studios of Allied Media Corp made the videos and audio tapes for the former Bush administration to further the US War of Terror and wars of aggression against its own people and other sovereign nations. 
The post 9/11 video tape of bin Laden supposedly confessing to carrying out the attacks against the US was a fake and the person we are suppose to believe is bin Laden is an actor. 
George W Bush used Allied Media Corp to create videos and audio tapes of actors portraying bin Laden and al Qaeda making threats against the US in order to influence and coerce Congress into giving him dictatorial powers and rob the US people of their civil rights and freedoms.
bin Laden did not take away your freedom the Bush White House did. bin Laden did not attack the U.S. on September 11, 2001 your own government did. bin Laden didn’t bankrupt the U.S. your own government did – throughout history all major empires have collapsed as a result of very costly prolonged wars of aggression campaigns. bin Laden and Saddam Hussein didn’t kill over 1 million innocent Iraqi civilians your U.S. government did – first the Clinton administration, then George W Bush and Dick Cheney’s administration and now Obama’s administration. Al Qaeda is and always has been a Made in the USA terrorist organization. Terrorism is a Made in the U.S. political agenda.
Just as dreams are not real, neither are these nightmares. The idea that we are threatened by a hidden and organized terrorist network is an illusion. It is a myth that has spread unquestioned through politics, the security services and the international media. 
The terrorist organization Al Qaeda does not exist and never did. Al Qaeda is the US government’s code name for illegal CIA terrorist operations against foreign states and the US people.
The Vatican’s Nazi SS (Latin name for Holy See is Sancta Sedes or SS) formed the CIA
At the end of WWII the US smuggled hundreds of top Nazi SS officers, Gestapo agents and scientists involved in experiments on the Jewish people in the concentration camps. Operation Paperclip (Project Paperclip) saw hundreds of Nazi officials given asylum in the US (Fort Bliss) from prosecution for their crimes against humanity. 
Scientists who committed atrocities by using human beings as lab rats have formed the US biological weapons division of the US military. Nazi scientists who developed the first operational jet fighter, the Messerschmitt Me 262, and V-2 rocket formed the US ballistic missile weapons programs and later form NASA. Nazi Gestapo (German Intelligence Agencies) agents were brought to the US and formed the FBI and the Central Intelligence Agency – the CIA.
Related Stories:
Short URL: